Editorial promise
We distinguish what the evidence says, what the forecast infers and what remains uncertain. A compelling narrative is never a substitute for a measurable claim.
Forecast selection
Choose a question that can resolve.
A publishable forecast needs a meaningful uncertain outcome, a deadline and resolution conditions that an informed reader could apply. We may decline ideas that are untestable, duplicative, primarily promotional, invasively personal or likely to cause harm without adding public value.
Reader interest can influence what we investigate, but support counts do not determine the answer or probability.
Evidence and attribution
Prefer the source closest to the fact.
We prioritize primary documents, official data, peer-reviewed research and direct statements, then use reputable secondary reporting for context and independent scrutiny. Material claims should be linked to a source readers can inspect whenever one is publicly available.
Repeated coverage of the same underlying announcement is not treated as independent confirmation. Source limitations, conflicts and material uncertainty should be described when they affect the argument.
Probability and resolution
State the estimate without false precision.
Forecast percentages represent the current estimate that the defined event will resolve true by its deadline. We use base rates, successive requirements, alternative routes and evidence updates; the complete approach is described in the Percentage Methodology.
Probabilities may change when material evidence changes. The original estimate and meaningful updates should remain part of the historical record. A forecast is resolved against its stated test, not against the spirit of a later narrative.
Corrections and updates
Repair the record without erasing it.
Factual errors, broken source attribution and material mischaracterizations should be corrected promptly after verification. A correction should identify what changed and, when the change affects the forecast, whether the probability or resolution logic also changed.
New information is an update, not necessarily a correction. Silent edits are limited to spelling, formatting and other changes that do not alter meaning. Readers can flag an article-specific issue in its public discussion with the passage, source and requested correction.
AI and automation
Tools assist. Humans publish.
ParallaxSee uses automated systems for research organization, data analysis, drafting and editorial illustration. Generated material is treated as unverified until a human reviews it. AI systems do not receive a byline, make the final publication decision or remove ParallaxSee's responsibility for the result.
Sources produced by a model are not accepted without checking the underlying document. Editorial illustrations are identified in their visible credit and governed by the Image Rights policy.
Independence, conflicts and safety
Disclose the incentive.
Payment, gifts, access and commercial relationships do not purchase a forecast outcome. Any sponsorship, commission, financial interest or material relationship relevant to a forecast must be disclosed on the page. Undisclosed paid placement is not accepted.
Forecasts involving health, finance, law, public safety or identifiable individuals receive additional scrutiny. They remain editorial research and must not be presented as professional advice or as certainty about a person's private conduct.