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Sports

Forecasts about competitive outcomes, emerging talent, league economics and the institutions that shape sport—each tied to evidence and a result that can eventually be scored. 02 active predictions, ordered by distance.

ParallaxSee Sports

Forecast 01 Target 2028

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Who Will Be the Youngest Chess World Champion? Yağız Kaan Erdoğmuş, by 2028

The Turkish teenager reached 2700 earlier than any player in history; his rating curve and multiple Candidates routes point to a world title at 17.

42%House forecast42%Resolves 2028

An anonymous teenage chess player studies a tournament board beneath a red crescent-shaped light.

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Forecast 02 Target 2036

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Who Will Dominate the NBA's Next Decade? The Knicks and Spurs Will Dominate the 2030s

New York's uncapped commercial market and San Antonio's tax-efficient young core fit the NBA's new salary economy better than any rivals.

76%House forecast76%Resolves 2036

New York’s dense Midtown skyline and circular basketball arena are compared with San Antonio’s lower skyline, Tower of the Americas and spacious arena campus.