PARALLAXSEEPrimary editorial space
← All spacesForecasts about political leadership, elections, state capacity and geopolitical change. Every claim states a deadline and resolution condition rather than presenting possibility as certainty. 09 active predictions, ordered by distance.
ParallaxSee Politics & Governance
Forecast 01 Target 2028Open prediction
China is turning local judicial models into a national second mind for its courts—one that reads evidence, finds the law and drafts the judgment before the judge decides.
Rose Summers Politics & Governance
Forecast 02 Target 2029Open prediction
Reader forecast, enhanced: fiscal restraint, restrictive migration politics and modest household relief will fracture Labour's coalition before the next election.
ParallaxSee Politics & Governance
Forecast 03 Target 2029Open prediction
Labour will tolerate Burnham's weakening honeymoon because replacing two prime ministers in one Parliament would advertise institutional collapse before the election.
ParallaxSee Politics & Governance
Forecast 04 Target 2029Open prediction
Ro Khanna has Obama-era credibility, Sanders's network and Mamdani's message, but converting them into a national coalition remains a 4% long shot.
ParallaxSee Politics & Governance
Forecast 05 Target 2030Open prediction
Bougainville's 97.7% independence mandate, 2030 roadmap and need for final parliamentary ratification make it the strongest candidate to become the next sovereign state.
ParallaxSee Politics & Governance
Forecast 06 Target 2032Open prediction
We forecast a 60% chance that European NATO allies will publicly demonstrate European-led conventional defence by 2032, with important American support retained. The decisive investments are factories, trained crews and shared logistics.
ParallaxSee Politics & Governance
Forecast 07 Target 2032Open prediction
Seoul will secure safeguarded fuel-cycle rights and a nuclear-submarine programme, shortening the distance to a weapon while remaining inside the NPT.
ParallaxSee Politics & Governance
Forecast 08 Target 2040Open prediction
Egypt can preserve military continuity without appearing hereditary by elevating Defence Minister Ashraf Salem Zaher instead of Sisi's son.
ParallaxSee Politics & Governance
Forecast 09 Target 2035Open prediction
Chen Jining's technocratic record and Shanghai leadership make him the strongest named candidate for an orderly transition after Xi, despite China's opaque succession politics.
